Turtledroppings.com – Maryland Football And Basketball Blog

In these most desperate times, you may have to pull for a team you don’t like, or root against a team you do like.  I am going to do my best to go into all the remaining bubble teams and what outcome we need to help the Terps.

Let’s start where we know the most, the ACC.  Boston College is most likely in thanks to Rakim Sanders fade away jumper against Georgia Tech over the weekend.  They play UVA in the first round of the Tournament.  Can Mamadi Diane stay hot enough to help the Terps now that he destroyed them on Saturday?  Let’s hope.  Miami and Virginia Tech play in what could be an elimination game.  I don’t know why, but it seems everyone thinks Miami has a stronger case.  I really don’t get that.  If that is the case, go Hokies.  The winner of this game gets #1 seed UNC.  If either Miami or VT beat UNC, that team would most likely get in. 

In the Big East Providence seems to be the only remaining bubble team.  Most people have Pitt, Uconn, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette, and Syracuse in.  That leaves us with Providence.  Like Maryland they have a huge win (against Pitt) and have been feeding on the bottom half of conference.   They play the winner of Depaul and Cincininati.  A loss there and they are done.  A win might be enough to get them in depending on how everyone else does.  If they win they would then face number one seed Louisville.  Win that one and they too are in,

Big 10 (11) is a total nightmare.   That whole conference seems to be on the bubble in my mind.  It seems popular that Michigan St, Illinois and Purdue all in.  That leaves Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Penn State still fighting for their tournament lives.  Ohio State has a pretty strong resume.  A win against Wisconsin on Friday will pretty much put them in.  A loss and it will put them in a lower position than if the season was all ready over.  That being said Wisconsin also looks pretty good, and a loss to Ohio State may not necessarily eliminate them.  A win and they are in pretty good shape.  Minnesota is on a down slide, having lost 6 of the last 9.  A loss on Thursday against Northwestern, and they most likely would be done.  A win against them puts them in a second round game against the number one seed Michigan St.  A win against Michigan State would probably be enough, a loss and Tubby and his team will be sweating out Selection Sunday.  Michigan faces Iowa in the first round.  A loss and they may be done.  A win is probably enough and should they win they would face the two seed Illinois.  A win there most certainly puts them in.  A loss and they might still be safe.  That brings us to Penn State, wow.  I heard this other day, and I really question how they are considered a bubble team when they have a non conference strength of schedule of 309, and their best nonconference win is against #119 Mount St. Mary’s.  I don’t get it.  They did sweep Illinois and are 10-8 in the Big 10, but there strength of schedule overall is still 99.  They face Indiana in the first round.  A win doesn’t do much, but they would face Purdue in the second round and a win there would be a huge feather in PSU’s cap.  Root against Penn State at all cost.

The Big 12 has locks in Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M (I question them still), and Texas.  That leaves Oklahoma State and Kansas State on the bubble.  Oklahoma State has a strength of schedule of six, and has a 20-10 overall record while going 9-7 in the Big 12.  They face Iowa State in the first round.  A loss there and it might be trouble.  A win there puts them against Oklahoma.  Certainly if they beat Oklahoma, they would be in.  Root against Oklahoma State.  Kansas State is the number four seed in the Big 12 over Texas and Texas A & M, but don’t have as high of profile wins as the two squads from Texas.  They have more work to do, and will play the winner of Texas and Colorado.  Being the fourth seed may be a disadvantage for them.   They will not play a lower seeded team and most likely will have to play Texas.  A win against Texas would help them.  Root against Kansas State.

The Pac-10 has locks in Washington, UCLA, Cal, and Arizona State.  Arizona seems to be their only bubble team.  They currently own the longest active streak of being in the tournament.  They have some good wins, but are 2-9 on the road.  They are 9-9 in the conference and 19-12 overall.  You would think they need to beat Arizona State in the conference tournament to be seriously considered.  They would then likely play top seeded Washington.  A win there might seal the deal.

On to the SEC, where I feel like all the teams are on the bubble.  ESPN has Tennessee and LSU as locks.  I can buy that, but they are not going to be highly seeded.  Florida stayed alive beating fellow bubble member Kentucky over the weekend.  That loss likely ended Kentucky’s chances.  Florida plays Arkansas and should they win that, they would face Auburn.  They may need both.  South Carolina is 10-6 in the conference.  That sounds good right?  Well they also only have one win over a top 50 team (#49 Florida, who as mentioned above is a bubble team.  South Carolina needs a signature win, but a win against the Georgia – Mississippi State game may get them in.  Two would be icing for the Gamecocks.  They have Auburn listed as on the bubble.  All I need to know to say no is, their best nonconference win was against UVA.  They are winners of 8 of their last 9 I believe, so they have that going for them, and if they can get really deep in the tournament, they may be able to get an at large bid. 

In the Mountain West, Utah and BYU are locks.  Root for them to win the tournament.  The bubble teams are San Diego State, UNLV, and New Mexico.  I think if any of those teams were to knock off Utah or BYU along the way, they might get a serious look.  I really wouldn’t be surprised to see San Diego State in the big dance.  UNLV and SDST play each other in the first round of the Mountain West.  That may be an elimination game.  If UNLV wins, they may still need one more.

ESPN also list others.  You have to think a little less of a conference if they can’t get a fair shake on this thing and get lumped into “others”.  Memphis has about a 10,000 game Conference USA winning streak.   The fact that they are in “others” should tell you they are men among boys under Caliperi.  They may be able to find their way to a one seed in the Big Dance if they win the CONFUSA and the current expected numbers ones all falter early.  Obviously you want Memphis to win it all.  The A-10 is getting a couple of teams in the bubble conversation this year.  You want Xavier to win it all.  Dayton has a strong case this year with an 8-2 record against the top 100 and 4-2 against top 50.  They do have 3 losses against 100+ teams.  They might be in now.  A win certainly helps, and loss may do them in.  They play the winner of Richmond and St. Bonaventure.  You would think a loss there would be a black eye.  Root against the Flyers (Dayton that is, not Philadelphia).  Speaking of Philadelphia and the A-10, Temple is in the mix.  Temple’s chance is small, but if they get deep in the Tournament and or beat Xavier along the way, they may have a chance.  Rhode Island is in the same boat as Temple.  Personally I watched them lose to UMASS in a heart breaker Saturday.  They may have been able to get it done with that win.  Now I think they will need a couple of wins in the A-10 to dance.  They may get another shot at UMASS if UMASS can beat Duquesne.  Creighton is up next.  As I mentioned earlier I was giving a live play by play of Creighton’s first round win.  Luckily for our friend, he wasn’t able to come over and watch the game Saturday.  They got blown out.  They have got to be nervous for selection Sunday.  This almost deserves it’s own section, but I watched Gonzaga route Saint Mary’s last night.  I think that keeps St. Mary’s out (but who am I?).  There is a catch, along the way St. Mary’s coach recently added a game against Eastern Washington, that they will play Friday.  If that doesn’t spell desperation nothing does.  20 of their 25 wins are against 100+ teams.

So there is a breakdown of ALL the bubble teams.   Writing this just makes the UVA loss so much worse.  Maryland could have wrapped it up last Saturday.  That being said most of these teams also had chances to secure their tickets, but also failed.  The bubble is weak.  The mid-majors are down.  There are a lot of teams that can win a game maybe two and make a really strong case they should belong.   We all know Maryland is certainly one of them!

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